Bankrate.com Mortgage Trend Index (May 1, 2008)

I am a regular participant in the Bankrate.com Mortgage Rate Trend survey and this week's survey is now available.

As a reminder:

1. The survey is for conforming loans only.
2. Asking "Where are rates headed?" is not strategy -- it's a gamble.  Reach out to me directly for help with a personal mortgage plan.

Anyway, on to the group's predictions for the next 30 days:

• 56% of participants predict rates will increase
• 22% of participants predict rates will decrease
• 22% of participants predict rates will remain unchanged

I am predicting that rates will increase over the next 30 days, but that doesn't mean you should necessarily follow my advice when choosing whether to lock a rate, or float it.  My advice may not be appropriate for your individual situation.

From the Bankrate.com survey:

"Money to fuel stock market gains will come from the mortgage bond market, increasing mortgage rates for everyone."

Stocks have been (shadoobie) shattered as investors pared risk over the last handful of months.  The money from stock markets was parked in bonds, helping to raise demand to suppress prices. 

Now that the Federal Reserve hinted at a rate cut "pause", investors will likely regain their appetite for risk, reversing the flow of money and creating an excees supply of bonds.

More supply means lower prices and that pushes yields (i.e. rates) up.